USA > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Reading > Town of Reading Massachusetts annual report 1944 > Part 13
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Problem 4 .- Setting up a schedule for the orderly development of the total school plant.
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Question 4.1-What new buildings are needed immediately?
4.2-What major improvements in existing facilities should be made immediately?
4.3-In what probable order will other new buildings be needed?
" 4.4-When should new sites be chosen?
" 4.5-When should non-urgent improvements in existing facilities be made ?
4.6-What are the financial problems involved in the orderly development of the total school plant?
Problem 1 .- Determining the educational job to be done.
Question 1.1-How many children will need to be housed and educated over a given period of time?
Attempting to estimate accurately the pupil enrolment of a given school district for a given future date is not a simple task, as anyone can learn by checking the predictions of a few school surveys made fifteen or twenty years ago. Unpredictable factors such as war, depres- sions, business booms, sudden shifts of large industrial plants or business concerns, can and do upset the most carefully made statistical estimates. Even in the non-industrial, steadily growing town of Reading has this occurred, as may be attested by an analysis of the school plant survey made in 1929 by Dr. Jesse B. Davis of Boston University, and published as a part of the Annual Report of the School Committee for 1930. Dr. Davis' report contains many fine recommendations, some of which have been carried out, and others which are still worthy of consideration.
In his study Dr. Davis used the same techniques for predicting population and enrolment that have been used rather consistently by many statisticians and survey workers. He tabulated the population and enrolment figures for the ten-year period preceding his study, calculated the percentage increases of the last year of that period over the first year, then made his estimates for the next two ten-year periods on the assumption that that rate of increase would be maintained. What Dr. Davis and others of us could not foresee at that time was the approaching depression of the 1930-40 decade, or the coming of World War II. The havoc that these unpredictable events wrought on such estimates made at that time is best illustrated by the graphs in Figure 1, showing comparisons between Dr. Davis' enrolment predictions to 1944, and the actual enrolments to that date.
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Total enrolment was stationary for three years, 1934 to 1936, then decreased steadily to the present time. Enrolment in grades 1-6 dropped sharply from 1936 to 1940, then shot up to the 1936 level. This cannot be attributed to the war-time increase in birth rate,1 for that is just beginning to affect the first grade now. The curve for the Junior High School has paralleled closely the curve for total enrolment, while the Senior High School continued its meteoric rise of the past 40 years until the outb: cak of the war, but the draft and high wages have all but depleted the ranks of this group. Undoubtedly this is only a temporary condition.
The predictions made by Dr. Davis for the year 1950 were as follows : (These are not shown in Figure 1.)
Grades 1-12 4,228
1- 6 1,932
7- 9 1,136
10-12 1,394
"
10-12 (conservative est.) 1,000
If the same technique were followed today, using the trends from 1935 to 1944 to determine the 10-year change in enrolment, the predictions for 1950 would be :
Grades 1-12 2,066
1- 6 1,136
7- 9 469
10-12 462
1The New York State and national birthrate had reached an all-time low in 1938, but at present the rate in New York State is the highest in its history. The Bureau of Vital Statistics predicts a secondary wave immediately following the soldiers' return, then a drop to the lowest rate in the national history.
170
1000
900
en
800
700
600
500
Noto enrolment values in vertical brainlete
4,00
3000
-
2000
Grades 1-12
-
1000
Precios 1-6
900
800
700
Enrolment
600
500
Gradesl 7-9
400
300
Figure 1. - Comparison of predicted and actual enrolments in Reading, Mass. 1930-1944 (Davis) (Logarithmic Scale)
200
Predicted (These started with the actual figures for 1930) Actual
100
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944.
d
t
Grados 10-12
e
-
-
There is entirely too much discrepancy between these two sets of figures, and yet if one set is logical, then who can say that the other is not? Still other predictions have been made on enrolment for 1950, one by the Reading Planning Board, and another by an official of Reading High School. These, together with the Davis predictions and the theoretical predictions based on the trends of 1935-44 are shown in Table I.
TABLE I COMPARATIVE ENROLMENT ESTIMATES FOR 1950
Grades
Estimates by
1-12
1-6
7-9
10-12
Davis
4,228
1,932
1,136
1,394
1,000
1935-44 trend
2,066
1,136
469
462
Plan. Board
2,500
1,250
600
650
H. S. Official
...
.
753
It would seem from these figures and from the variations shown in Figure 1, that there is no reliable way of predicting future enrolments, and that any man's guess is as good as another's. There is some evi- dence, however, to substantiate the belief that such is not the case, and that fairly reliable predictions can be made for a reasonable period of time-perhaps not to exceed ten years. In the opinion of the writer, the basis upon which such predictions can be made is the degree of reliability with which population trends can be predicted, and the degree of consistent relationship between population and elementary enrolment. Or stated differently, workable predictions on enrolment can be made for a period of approximately ten years, from estimated population figures, first because population trends are fairly constant over that period of time, and may be estimated fairly reliably, and second, because the ratio of elementary children (the compulsory attendance group) to population, is reliably constant within a given district.
Figure 2, used to substantiate the statement on predicting population, shows the comparative estimates on population for the town of Reading, as made by Dr. Davis in his Schoolhouse Planning Program, by the Reading Planning Board, and by the Pitometer Co. Engineers, in a "Report on Water Distribution System of Reading, Mass., 1928." The figures from which the graphs in Figure 2 are plotted are shown in Table II.
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Year
1924
2B
30 32
34
35
38
46 Le with 46 48
50
20.000
20 19
18 07 16
Population
=15
B
-
-13
DI
+12.
E
10.000
A
9000
8000
7000
A - Actual population.
B - Prediction by Dr. Davis.
C - Prediction by Pitometer Engrs.
D - Extension of 1940-1942 Est.
E - Prediction by Planning Bd.
-
+14
c
- 11 10
Figure 2. - Comparison of predicted and actual population figures in Reading, Mass.
1920-1950 (Logarithmic Scale)
15
TABLE II POPULATION FIGURES AND ESTIMATES, 1920-1950
Estimates by
Year
Dr. Davis
Plan Bd.
Pit. Engrs.
Actual Population
1920
7,439
1925
8,693
1928
....
....
9,566
9,747
1935
11,257
10,629
1940
12,768
... .
11,892
10,866
1942
13,560
....
11,500*
1945
14,747
13,355
1950
16,726
13,000
15,018
14,036 **
. .
9,100
.
1930
. . . .
... .
....
*Estimated from sugar ration books issued in 1942.
** Projected from the 1940 population through the 1942 estimate.
Two facts are noteworthy in Table II and Figure 2. First, that all predictions on population indicate a belief in a constantly increasing figure, and second, that the population of Reading actually has increased constantly from 1920 to 1940, with strong evidence that there was a continued increase from 1940 to 1942. The rate of increase from 1920 to 1930 was somewhat higher than the rate from 1930 to 1940, the period of the depression; but the apparent increase from 1940 to 1942 would seem to indicate a return to the 1920-1930 rate.
Because of the parallelism of the Davis, Pitometer, and Planning Board curves, and because of the probable return of the rate of increase after 1940 to the 1920-30 rate, this report is based upon an estimated population in Reading for 1950 of 14,000. It is also believed that the same rate of increase will maintain for at least five more years, and that by 1955 the population of Reading will be somewhere between 16,000 and 18,000,-probably nearer the first figure.
It was stated in the third paragraph preceding this one that "work- able predictions on enrolment can be made ... from estimated popula- tion figures ... because the ratio of elementary children to population is reliably constant within a given district." This statement is expanded here to outline the method used to estimate the probable enrolments for grades 1-6, K-6, 7-9, and 10-12.
1. The enrolment for grades 1-6 is estimated from a percentage relationship established between total population and that enrolment group.
2. The enrolment for grades K-6 is estimated by increasing the estimated enrolment of grades 1-6 by one-sixth.
174
....
3. The resident enrolment for grades 7-12 is estimated from grades K-6, on the basis that K-6 enrolment is to 7-12 enrolment as 55 is to 45, or that 7-12 should be 45% of K-12.
4. The resident enrolment for grades 10-12 is taken as 40% of resident enrolment for grades 7-12.
5. The total enrolment in grades 7-9 and 10-12 must be increased by estimated additions from parochial, private, and outside schools.
TABLE III PERCENTAGES, ENROLMENT GRADES 1-6 IS OF TOTAL POPULATION
Year
Enrol. 1-6
Pop.
Per cent E/P
1922
894
7,900
11.3
1924
979
8,400
11.6
1926
1,098
8,900
12.3
1928
1,143
9,300
12.3
1930
1,204
9,747
12.4
1932
1,181
9,900
11.9
1934
1,183
10,100
11.7
1936
1,176
10,400
11.3
1938
1,107
10,600
10.4
1940
1,045
10,866
9.6
1942
1,092
11,500
9.5
1944
1,153
12,000
9.5
Table III is used to show the per cent that enrollment in grades 1-6 was of total population in Reading over the past 22 years, and to establish an average for estimating future elementary enrolment. It will be noted that the percentage of elementary enrolment to popu- lation increased slightly from 1922 to 1930, but since then it has decreased slowly to 1940. On estimated population it has remained static since 1940. Assuming that after the war there will be a rapid upturn in the con- struction of new houses to be occupied by young couples and beginning families, it seems reasonable that the ratio of elementary enrolment to population will return to at least 10 to 100, or 10%. Therefore, that figure is used in this report, and on the basis of 14,000 population in 1950, it is estimated that there should be approximately 1,400 children enrolled in grades 1-6 in Reading by 1950.
Over the past fourteen years it has been demonstrated many times in New York State that in a school district which builds up a modern secondary school plant with an educational program adapted to the needs of all the children in the district, the enrolment in grades 7-12 increases,
175
on account of the increased holding power of the high school, until it bears a ratio to the elementary school, grades K-6, of 45 to 55. This statement applies to resident pupils only,-that is, to high school pupils advancing from the elementary grades of the same district. Non-resi- dent pupils, or pupils coming to the public high schools from parochial or private elementary schools, are not included in establishing this ratio.
There is no reason to believe that this same ratio will not hold for the state of Massachusetts, and especially for a non-industrial area such as Reading. Therefore, if we consider an elementary and kindergarten enrolment for Reading of 1,635 (1,400 - 1/6 of 1,400), there should be approximately 1,340 resident pupils in grades 7-12. On the basis of a 60-40 distribution of these between grades 7-9 and 10-12, there would be approximately 800 in the Junior High School and 540 in the Senior High School. To these must be added the non-resident 9th grade pupils in the Junior High, and the non-resident 10-12 grade pupils in the Senior High.
From accepted estimates prepared at Reading High in 1941, on non- resident high school pupils for 1950, the resident figures would need to be increased by approximately 100 and 185 respectively. The preceding en- rolment estimates are brought together in Table IV.
TABLE IV ESTIMATED POPULATION AND ENROLMENTS FOR READING, MASS. 1950 AND 1955
Population
Resident 14,000
Total-1950 14,000
Total-1955 16,000
Enrolment in
Grades 1-6
1,400
1,400
1,600
Grades K-6
1,635
1,635
1,865
Grades 7-9
800
900*
1,005*
Grades 10-12
540
725*
820*
Total Enrolment
2,975
3,260*
3,690*
*Includes non-residents.
Problem 1 .- Determining the educational job to be done.
Question 1.2-Where will those children live within the district?
This question can be answered best by a study of Map A, prepared from a copy of the zoning map for the town of Reading. The children are not spotted individually, but the map is divided into six areas, and in each area the number of elementary children, the total number of houses, and the number of houses constructed since 1938, are indicated. These areas, labelled I, II, III, IV, V, and VI, are determined somewhat nat- urally by the main traffic lanes of the town. The data given on Map A is also presented in Table V.
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TABLE V DISTRIBUTION OF ELEMENTARY CHILDREN, ALL HOMES, AND HOMES CONSTRUCTED SINCE 1938
1 Elementary %
2
3 A11
%
% Pct. New
Children
Homes
Homes Since 1938
Homes/Total Homes
Area I
59
5
282
10
37
11.5
13
II
36
4
94
3
9
3
9.5
III
325
30
888
30
111
34.5
12.5
IV
270
25
599
21
48
15
8
V
138
13
385
13
66
20.5
17
VI
253
23
670
23
50
15.5
7.5
Totals
1,081
100
2,918
100
321
100.
11
4
5
6
7
Note 1 .- The data used in this table were those used in the office of the Superintendent of Schools, in preparing spot maps of children and houses.
Note 2 .- Areas I and II are north of Forest and Wakefield Streets. Areas V and VI are south of the B and M tracks. Areas I, III, V, and most of VI are west of Main Street.
It is evident from an inspection of Map A, supported by the data in Table V, that while most of the school children of Reading now live south of Forest Street and Wakefield Street, there was a steady growth over the entire district, before the war stopped all new home construc- tion. At present, 66% of the homes and children are in areas III, V, and VI, and the number of new homes constructed in these areas constitute about 70% of all new homes constructed since 1938. The uniform rate of growth in all areas, however, is evidenced by the figures in Column 7 of Table V. And it is important to emphasize that if the rate of growth in the more congested areas is maintained, those areas will be the first to reach the point of home saturation, following which most of the growth must come in the areas now less congested. There is every reason to believe, from the evidence now available, that the town of Reading will grow relatively uniformly over its entire habitable area, and that eventual- ly elementary schools will be needed in every section of the town.
A most interesting situation to be gleaned from Columns 2 and 4 in Table V is the almost perfect correlation between the percentage of elementary children and the percentage of homes in each area. Except for Areas I and IV, the figures are almost identical. The ratio of elemen- tary children to homes is 1,081 to 2,918, or one child of grades 1-6 from 2.69 homes.
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Problem 1 .- Determining the educational job to be done.
Question 1.3-How will the children be grouped as to grade organ- ization ?
Question 1.4-What subjects will be taught, and what activities carried on.
Question 1.5-What teaching methods, that may affect the school planning, will be used?
These questions are grouped for a single brief discussion, because they are principally questions of school organization and administration, and must be settled outside the field of a strictly school plant survey. Since there is no concomitant educational survey being made for Read- ing, in which changes in organization, subject-matter offerings, and teaching methods might be discussed or recommended, the report must be based primarily on conditions in those areas as they are. These factors of organization and administration are basic to good school plant planning, however, and liberty is taken therefore to comment upon them, and to make some recommendations.
The fact that three of the elementary buildings house only grades one through four seems to have arisen purely as a matter of expediency, and not from any educational theory or imagined advantages that might accrue to the children. The existing buildings evidently are filled with children from the immediate neighborhoods, and those who cannot be placed in these buildings are sent somewhere else. At present the break between those who can't get in and those who can, is at the end of the fourth grade. Fortunately (?) there was some place else to send them. This method of determining educational organization occurs all too fre- quently, and cannot be condemned too severely. No doubt it saves money ofttimes ; but perhaps communities who permit it should be re- minded of the comment of a mid-western state superintendent of schools, who advised his school districts that, if their primary objective was to save money on their schools, they should close them and save all their money.
It is not clear why kindergartens are not operated in Reading, nor is it reasonable to say that they are absolutely essential to the organ- ization of good elementary schools. The movement is spreading so rap- idly throughout the country, however, that it is safe to assume that a large majority of both parents and educators see great merit in them. This report is based upon the belief that there is such merit, and that the ideal elementary school is organized on the grouping of the kinder- garten and grades one through six in one building.
The inclusion of grades seven through twelve in the secondary school organization is sound, and no doubt will be continued. The separa- tion of the junior and senior high school groups was partly intentional,
178
based upon an assumed advantage of separate groups, and partly eco- nomic because in 1929, when the junior high school building was erected, it did not seem feasible to replace the existing high school building. To- day the trend is away from separate junior and senior organizations.
On the educational side this trend arises partly as an attempt to off- set a tendency to organize and administer the work of the Junior High School so that it is entirely independent or unrelated to the work of the Senior High School. The cure for this apparent evil is not necessarily in a single building for both groups, but in closer over-all supervision of the entire secondary school program, through the adoption of a uniform salary schedule that will attract equally qualified teachers into all levels of secondary teaching, and through the selection of teachers imbued with the philosophy that all of the activities of the secondary schools must be closely integrated. These things may be done successfully whether the junior and senior groups are in oposite ends of a building, or opposite ends of the town.
On the side of economy of operation, there is no doubt but that it would be somewhat cheaper to have all of the secondary school children of Reading in one building. There would be some saving both in the operation of the plant, and in the operation of the program. But these savings must be weighed against the inadvisability of bringing them to- gether in a building and at a location that, over a long period of time, will not provide the best opportunities for growth and expansion. Here again economy must be considered not only in terms of money, but in terms of long-time educational efficiency.
In the realm of subject matter and methods of teaching, it is assumed that in the elementary schools there will be taught all of the fundamental subjects, plus music, art, handcrafts, science, and physical education, and that the same excellent teaching found in so many of the elementary classrooms, and requiring space for related but - diversified activities, will be continued and developed throughout all the schools. In the high schools it is recommended strongly that the work in health and physical education, shop, and homemaking, be provided and expanded. It can- not be emphasized too much that health through physical education and recreation is possible for a great majority of our children, but that it can be secured only through the definite organization and administration of courses in this field for all of the children of the entire school sys- tem. The war has demonstrated our failure along this line.
Problem 2 .- Outlining a complete school plant for the educational job to be done.
Question 2.1-How many school buildings will be needed?
For the elementary children, the total number of buildings required will be determined by the total number of children to be housed, and the
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number to be assigned to each building, assuming that each building will accommodate an enrolment somewhere within the range of the ideal elementary school. This number has already been recommended as 300 to 600. If elementary buildings were to be planned for the enrolment estimated for the year 1955, which was 1,865 in grades K-6 (kindergarten through six), and if the average enrolment of 450 were to be housed in each, then there would be four such buildings planned. Since the range in enrolment for the ideal school varies from 300 to 600, it would be reasonable to consider a variation of from three to six buildings, depend- ing on other determining factors. These factors are brought into the picture in determining the location of the buildings and the use to be made of existing buildings.
For the secondary school children, the ideal school plant would have one six-year high school building for an enrolment up to 2,000. Some authorities have estimated that no high school should have over 2,500 enrolment and that the ideal working group is between 1,500 and 2,000. The advantages of the single six-year building over separate junior and senior high school buildings has been discussed in the comments made on organization of the high schools under Problem I.
Unfortunately, perhaps, this report cannot recommend the develop- ment of a six-year high school building as an extension of the existing junior high school. If the anticipated enrolment of 1,825 in grades 7-12 within the next decade is reasonable, then the capacity of this build- ing would need to be trebled, and neither the building nor the site would lend itself to such expansion without expenditures out of proportion to the advantages gained. Furthermore, the location of the Junior High School is not highly desirable for the entire secondary school program, especially when more suitable sites are available almost at the geographic and probable population center of the district. Therefore because the present Junior High School must be retained, two high school buildings are needed for the district.
Problem 2 .- Outlining a complete school plant for the educational job to be done.
Question 2.2-Where should the school buildings be located ?
If the population of a school district were distributed equally over its entire area, if there were no barriers to interfere with the travel of children to and from school, and if unrestricted sites were available, it would be comparatively simple to divide the district into areas each hav- ing 300 to 600 children, and locate an elementary school near the center of each area. But these conditions do not exist in the town of Reading. Main Street, an exceedingly high traffic highway, is a definite barrier to the unrestricted passage of children, especially those of the lower grades. Likewise the Boston and Maine tracks form a dangerous barrier between the children north and south of the right-of-way. Forest Street
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and Wakefield Street are not high-traffic routes, but do form a rather natural division of that part of the district above the railroad tracks.
The total area south of the tracks comprises somewhat less than one-third the area of the entire district. There are at present approxi- mately 400 children of grades 1-6 residing there. With the children of kindergarten age this number would reach approximately 470, which falls within the range of the ideal elementary school. Therefore there is need now for one elementary school to accommodate this area. From the evidence of available residential building space, rate of increase of new homes before the war, and extent of area in this section, the con- clusion may be drawn that eventually two elementary schools will be required for this area. The final recommendation then is for two elemen- tary schools, one near the center of Area V and the other near the center of Area VI. The latter should be constructed first, and the children be- yond reasonable walking distance transported until increased enrolment demands the construction of the second school. While they are still available, sites of at least five acres should be secured for these schools.
There are now 325 elementary children residing in Area III, and 270 in Area IV. It is doubtful if the number of children in the elementary grades will ever exceed 600 in either of these areas, although this could happen in Area IV if it were completely built up. The recommendation is for one elementary school in each of these areas. The site for school III should be selected while land is available, and held until the Highland School is replaced. The Pearl Street School is already strategically located to serve Area IV, even though ideally it could have been placed nearer the center of the area.
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