USA > Massachusetts > Middlesex County > Lincoln > Town Report on Lincoln 1956-1959 > Part 14
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Ceme - teries
TOTAL
Police Fire Other
Chapter 90 Con- struction
Mach- inery
Town
Elementary Regional School Con- High School struction
Other
1946 1,800
5,300
11,800
---
--
18,900
4,000
22,900
1947
600 12,500
9,500
950
16,100
39,650
23,300
-
62,950
1948 3,900
400
700
8,000
7,200 16,800
3,700
40,700
15,800
56,500
1949
n.r.
8,000
7,750 29,100
284,200
329,050
16,600
345,650
1950
300
10,000
45,300
2,750
950
59,300
9,600
3,900
-
72,800
1951
1,000
300
3,750 10,000
21,400
200
36,650
16,300
10,600
300
63,850
1952
1,800
6,650
1,600
368,700
4,000
382,750
7,800
390,550
1953 1,400
600
3,000
1,550
74,600
81,150
7,500
500
500
89,650
1954
200
700
1,200
550
13,400
15,200
31,250
5,900
2,300
300
39,750
1955
800
1,600
2,200
4,900
-
-
106,000
n.r.
---
-
---
110,500
TOTAL
1946 1955
9,100
6,300 15,900 12,350 57,450
31,400 45,900
933,400
15,200
6,750
1,150
1,129,900
85,600
21,200
17,300 1,100
1,255,100
.-
-
4
-
-
-
110,500
-
n.r. No Record
Additions Meters Other
Garage
-
--
Table 3
Town of Lincoln, Expenditures Divided between Current and Capital Accounts, and Receipts (in thousands of dollars)
Expenditure
Current Receipts
Current
Collector from Common- Other
Selectmens
Water Total
Capital Expense
of Taxes
wealth other than (9 + 10)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(3 - 4) (5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
1946
167.5
13.7
181.2
22.9
158.3
106.3
44.6
12.5
1947
200.6
32.2
232.8
62.9
169.9
130.6
49.4
21.2
1948
246.1
25.7
271.9
56.5
215.4
160.3
58.4
17.8
1949
567.1
21.2
588.3
345.7
239.9
182.8
74.9
19.7
1950
314.3
18.6
332.9
72.8
260.1
204.6
58.2
22.8
1951
331.6
30.7
362.3
63.8
298.5
253.4
74.0
27.3
1952
654.5
33.4
687.9
386.6
301.3
261.5
87.3
29.7
1953
470.1
30.1
500.2
89.6
410.6
299.3
70.2
27.0
1954
456.8
29.4
486.2
39.8
446.4
322.8
84.3
35.8
1955
592.6
29.0
621.6
110.5
511.1
391.5
96.9
33.3
Capital Receipts
Chapter 90
State
Assistance
Extraordinary Capital Receipts (11)
(6 to 11) (12)
Water Dept. Receipts (13)
Receipts (12 + 13) (14)
1946
2.2
17.0ª
182.6
15.5
198.2
1947
7.0
5.00
218.2
15.5
233.7
1948
11.0
59.1℃
306.6
18.7
325.4
1949
16.0
5.4d
298.8
21.9
320.8
1950
1.0
286.7
25.0
311.6
1951
8.5
3.7e
366.9
26.8
393.6
1952
11.5
387.1
28.4
425.4
1953
5.0
25.2
443.9
31.2
470.1
1954
5.0
448.1
33.2
481.3
1955
34.1
104.4£
660.2
39.4
699.6
Notes
Column 1
- excluding redemption of tax notes, but including debt repayment as below.
- from Record of Capital Expenditures.
9
- includes Chapter 90 Maintenance as well as Construction up to 1952.
11 - a) $12,000 de Cordova Gift and $5,000 repayment of Water Department bonds to the town.
b) $5,000 Water Dept. bond repayment to the town.
c) $50,250 from Post-War Rehabilitation Fund, $3,861.33 premium on bonds sold, and $5,000 Water Dept. bond repayment to the town.
d) Post-War Rehabilitation Fund.
e) $1000 transfer from Cemetery Fund and $2,676.65 premium on bonds sold.
f) Charles Sumner Smith Fund.
5
Total
for School
Total
Construction
(9)
(10)
4
Dept.
(1 + 2) Expend.
Orders
Table 4
Town of Lincoln Debt, Assessments, Tax Rate (in thousands of dollars)
a
Borrowings Repayments Outstanding Debtª (Dec. 31)
Assessment Real and Personal Property
Tax Rate (per $1000)
1946
-
5.0
10.0
3,363.6
$28
1947
-
5.0
5.0
3,737.8
33
1948
330.0
5.0
330.0
3,926.4
38
1949
-
19.0
311.0
4,149.2
40
1950
-
19.0
292.0
4,554.3
40
1951
335.0
19.0
608.0
5,059.5
44
1952
-
37.0
571.0
5,217.2
45
1953
9.0
37.0
543.5
5,498.5
48
1954
-
40.0
503.5
5,862.5
48
a
40.0
463.5ª
6,253.3
54
1955
a Excluding borrowing and debt of Regional School District amounting at December 31, 1955 to $1,500,000, of which Lincoln's "share" is approximately one -third.
These figures, and the chart, indicate that of the roughly $1,250,000 of capital expenditures undertaken in the ten-year period from 1946 to 1955 inclusive, $200,000 in round numbers came from special capital sources, including gifts and the Post-War Rehabilitation Fund; less than $50,000 from Chapter 90 construction assistance from the Commonwealth (the figures for the early years include Chapter 90 Maintenance as well as Construction); $64,000 from State Assistance for School Construction; $460,000 from borrow- ing; and the rest, more than $475,000 out of tax funds and free cash. This summary excludes Lincoln's share of the Regional School District which is spending $1,500,000 on construction, virtually all out of borrowed funds.
It should be observed that the Town will be aided in the repayment of its School debt by assistance from the Commonwealth, amounting to approximately 30 per cent. This assistance is applied to the capital amount of borrowing, not interest, in equal installments over 20 years. Because of the length of time over which it is received, and the necessity meanwhile to pay interest, it is not appropriate to deduct it from the Town's indebtedness.
Table 5 sets out the annual cost of the capital improvements over the last decade in terms of the cost of borrowed funds. In this case the figures for debt repayment include the share represented by State Aid.
6
Table 5
Town of Lincoln - Debt Service
Debt Repayment*
Interest
Total
1946
$ 5,000
$ 188
$ 5,188
1947
5,000
125
5,125
1948
5,000
63
5,063
1949
19,000
5,775
24,775
1950
19,000
5,577
24,577
1951
19,000
6,088
25,088
1952
37,000
10,640
47,640
1953
37,000
10,425
47,425
1954
40,000
9,956
49,956
1955
40,000
9,402
49,402
* Omitting tax anticipation notes
Possible Growth of Lincoln Population
Three methods are available for estimating the likely growth of the population of Lincoln over the next twenty years - none of any real accuracy. The first calls for simple projections of recent rates of growth; the second assumes that the town will "fill up" over the period and calculates a probable population at full capacity; a third method attempts to estimate the net effect of various known factors.
These estimates are based on a continuation of present trends and are based on present zoning. They would require revision if the Bedford Airport project of rezoning for non-residential activities led to any major change in zoning regulations.
Simple Projection - The record of the past growth of Lincoln is available from decennial national censuses and intervening state estimates. These show:
Population of Lincoln
1920
1,042
1945
1,998
1930
1,493
1950
2,427
1930
1,783
1955
2,949
Figures up to 1950 are perhaps unrepresentative because of the slowness of growth caused by the war. The growth from 1955 to 1975 can be projected arithmetically (assuming the same numerical gain each five years) or geo- metrically (assuming the same rate of gain). These are tabulated on page 8 and shown in Chart 2.
7
Arithmetic Projection
Geometric Projection (22% every 5 years)
1960
3,500
3,700
1965
4,000
4,500
1970
4,500
5,500
1975
5,000
6,700
For certain purposes, it is more important to have information on school numbers than on the population in general. Data on the elementary school population are available from Town Reports and have been projected to 1961 by the School Committee, using materials on recorded births, but making no allowance for inward migration or future natural increase. These show a doubling from 247 in 1945 to 492 in 1953, a further increase to 575 in 1955, and a projected growth to 700 by 1958 and to 727 by 1961.
A similar study has been made in connection with the Lincoln-Sudbury Regional District School. These figures also represent a conservative approach, since they do not allow for inward migration or for a decline in the "drop-out" rate to attend private school. Published in the Regional District Committee' s brochure, the figures show an increase in the Lincoln high school numbers from 96 in 1955 to 200 by 1960 and to 266 by 1964.
These estimates provide a reasonable basis for planning school con- struction toward 1965, but not beyond then.
The estimate based on the arithmetic projection is likely to constitute a minimum figure. The rate of expansion of 22 percent from 1950 to 1955 was lower than that of surrounding towns which ranged from 26 to 70 percent. All earlier forecasts of school population made in Lincoln on this basis have turned out to be underestimates. Similarly the study made in 1952 for water require- ments has been proved too conservative.
CHART 2
TOWN OF LINCOLN - POPULATION, ACTUAL AND PROJECTED
8000
Geometric Projection
6000
4000
Arithmetic Projection
2000
0
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
15
T r
nea de WO bil
F La an
th
for exp
Most officials of the Town believe that it is safe to use this minimum for planning purposes at this time, revising it as necessary in the light of experience. It was felt by some, however, that the rate was too slow in the nearby years, while one-acre lots laid out prior to the 1955 zoning change were developed, but too high in the later years when the effects of the two-acre zoning would be felt in lack of available sites. The committee recognizes this possi- bility, but finds no way of estimating its quantitative impact.
Full Capacity - The Committee has restudied the material developed in the Land Use Survey prepared by the Planning Board in 1955. Taking those figures, and adjusting for two-acre zoning, the Committee has come to the conclusion that the town could grow to something like 2,700 households or 10,000 people. This estimate makes allowance for land in public ownership, land used for roads, and unbuildable swamp and ledge areas.
Land in the Town now held for public purposes is divided as follows:
Town, including schools, DeCordova, etc. 100 acres
Cambridge and Commonwealth 130 acres
Federal Government, airport, research laboratories, Nike installation, 220 acres
Religious bodies
82 acres
Audubon society (Hathaway estate) 175 acres
Total 707 acres
This constitutes more than 8 percent of the Town's 8,572 acres. If 615 acres of ponds, 450 acres covered by roads, and 185 acres for the Bedford airport housing project are subtracted from the total along with these 707 acres of public land, 6,560 acres are left for private building.
The estimate of 2,700 families on this 6,560 acres has been checked against a more detailed study made for Weston. While the planning consultants predicted that Weston would be 70 percent "full" by 1970, the calculations on land use corresponded closely with the material used in the Lincoln estimate. According to the arithmetic projection above, Lincoln would be only 50 to 55 percent full in 1975, which indicated that many residents in the town twenty years hence will hold land in excess of the two acres required.
"Probable" Rate of Expansion - Between the possible minimum of 5000 for 1975 given by the arithmetic projection and 10,000 at full capacity, there is no way in which a most probable estimate can be fixed. The Committee feels that Lincoln is too small in relation to the metropolitan area to bear any unique relationship to its rate of growth. A variety of factors at the national, regional and local levels will affect the actual course of events. Some of these may be listed:
National
continued prosperity continued building in excess of rate of family formation availability and cost of mortgage credit
Regional
New England prosperity and growth development of Route 2 as limited-access highway continued movement of housing and industry from city and close suburbs to country, especially on Route 128
9
Local
expansion of activity at Bedford airport
cost of house sites in Lincoln, in view of asking prices; developmental costs, including roads, water; two-acre zoning; etc.
preference of developers for land capable of development into larger number of units.
growth of cooperative ventures
increased attraction of Lincoln as schools and improve- ments grow increase in land held for public purposes possible increase in average age of Lincoln families
Most of these factors are self-explanatory. The Committee has been particu- larly interested in the possible increase in average age. At this time, Lincoln has a high proportion of young families with young children. It may be that the town will remain so: as families grow older, they will move away in con- siderable number and their places will be taken by other young families. This has occurred in some communities. We feel that in Lincoln, however, a high proportion of families intend to settle on a permanent basis. If this is so, the average age of Lincoln families will increase, the proportion of young children to total population will decline; the high school group will grow faster than the elementary school population; and the total population will grow faster than school numbers.
It seems safe to predict that vacant land will sell off and be developed in the near future at roughly the same rates as in the recent past. Few develop- ers have operated in the town and most of those proceed house by house with a limited number of lots. The 23 houses planned by the Browns Woods Coopera- tive will be reflected in the statistics, but this venture is not likely to be repeated with frequency. Actual building permits for the past ten years show no sharply rising trend:
Building Permits for New Residences
1946
12
1951
40
1947
64*
1952
39
1948
57*
1953
44
1949
49
1954
61
1950
34
1955
60
In view of the unlikelihood that the national rate of building will be sus- tained indefinitely, of the slightly higher cost of site acquisition in Lincoln as compared with other towns, and of the probable increasing average age of the Lincoln population, it seems safe to predict that the 1975 population will be closer to the minimum estimate of 5,000 than to the full capacity of 10,000, or even to the geometric projection of 6,700. Perhaps an appropriate range of estimates would run as follows:
1955
3,000
1960
3,500 to 3,600
1965
4,000 to 4,300
1970
4,500 to 4,900
1975
5,000 to 5,500
10
With family size now at 3.75 persons per family, and declining slowly to the national average of close to 3.5 persons in 1975, this would imply an increase in housing as follows:
1955
800
nt
1960
945 to 975
1965
1,090 to 1,180
1970
1,250 to 1,360
1975
1,425 to 1,575
In conclusion the Committee wishes to emphasize that the population projection is a guide to the probable time when particular improvements will be needed. If the population grows more or less rapidly, it will not invalidate the need of certain recommendations in this report so much as change their timing.
Location and Housing
It follows from the foregoing general picture that unless unforeseen changes occur, the additions to housing will take place in all price ranges roughly in accordance with existing proportions, and that the average value per house, adjusted for any change in the real estate market, will not greatly change.
The Committee sought opinions on the location of probable growth because of the possibility that a much more rapid growth in one section of town as compared with another would give rise to the requirement of a separate new set of facilities to serve that area -- schools, recreation facilities, parking area for shopping center, etc., etc. It was advised that in the last 10 years, residential house building has been proceeding at a more rapid rate in North Lincoln (i.e. Lincoln along Route 2 and to the North) and in South Lincoln (south of the Boston and Maine railroad tracks) than in the intervening area. Almost equal numbers of houses have been built in the three roughly defined sections:
Housing Permits Obtained, 1944 - Sept. 30, 1955
North Lincoln 120
Central Lincoln 139
South Lincoln 124
Total 383
but the Central area is considerably larger than the others.
On consultation with planning experts, however, the Committee is informed that there is no inherent tendency in towns to divide as their population grows in the range of population likely to be reached by Lincoln by 1975. The development of separate "neighborhoods" can be fostered by creating separate facilities, but is not, in this opinion, inevitable in the absence of such steps. The views of all those consulted, moreover, which the Committee shares, is that every possible step should be taken to avoid any one or more neighborhoods in Lincoln breaking off from the others.
Commercial Zoning - The Committee believes that the Town is not prepared to
11
ec
rezone any considerable area for unspecified commercial or industrial use. Some members of the Committee, however, while opposed in principle to spot zoning, are of the opinion that the town could benefit financially without serious harm by admitting particular commercial or industrial establishments of a clean, high value sort which create no nuisance. This might be done either in response to specific requests by such a business, or on application after rezon- ing, particularly if the relocation of Route 2 or the Bedford airport housing project should establish an area somewhat cutoff from neighboring residential areas.
Detailed Recommendations - In the light of the foregoing considerations, the Committee recommends the general scope and character of capital expenditures set forth in Table 1 above, and presents in support the following detailed set of justifications:
General Government
a. Record of capital outlays, 1946-1955
1946
$1,826.30ª
1951
$1,000ª
1947
1952
1948
3,880.00
1953
1,398.71℃
1949
1954
227.50ª
1950
1955
762.74
Total
$9,095.25
b
a Planning Board surveys; Major renovation heating system Town House
C Remodelling Town offices.
b. Proposed Capital Expenditures (recommended, possibly avoidable)
$10,000 for remodelling Town Offices further, some time in future, arbitrarily allocated to 1957.
The cost of Planning Board Surveys may be regarded either as a capital or a current outlay. In the record, we have taken the first course, but have made no attempt to foresee expenditures of this sort.
The growth of the town will require further changes in the Town Offices. The Committee feels that the present building is adequate in size, but recommenc that a survey be made of usable office space on the first floor, combined with the feasibility of re-locating the present kitchen equipment accessible to the upper Town Hall.
It is probable that, with the construction of a Fire Station, the contem- plated Legion Building, and eventual availability of Pierce House, certain social functions, now dependent upon the Town House space, could be transferred.
c. Financing - current budget
Protection of Persons and Property
b
1. Police
12
a. Record of Capital Outlays, 1947-1955
1946
1951
$ 326.61
1947
$604.00
1952
1,778.77
1948
382.00
1953
593.30
1949
?
1954
699.00
1950
294.82
1955
1,584.00
Total
$6,262.50 all for cars and radios
b. Proposed Capital Expenditures (Unavoidable) $1500 annually, for cars, radio equipment, etc.
Provision for police offices and a lockup is made under the heading of fire protection, since it is intended to include these in the new fire house.
The other major requirement is for automobiles, equipped with radios. This requirement may possibly be regarded as a current expense, but it is treated here as capital.
Some expansion in equipment will be needed, however, during the course of the 20 years ahead. The National Safety Council estimates that one police officer is required for every 1,000 persons. With 3,000 population, and 4 regular officers, Lincoln appears to be somewhat better protected than the average, but it is likely that the Safety Council estimate is difficult to apply to small towns.
c. Financing - current budget
2. Fire Protection
a. Record of Capital Outlays, 1946-1955
1946
1951
-
1947
$12,500.00ª
1952
1948
1953
1949
1954
$1,210.00b
1950
1955
2,200.00€
Total
$15,910.00
a
New equipment; b Fire alarms; c Purchase of land
b. Proposed Capital Expenditures
1956-1960
$108,000 (total to be spent in 1957)unavoidable
1961-1965
15,000 unavoidable
1966-1970
50,000 possibly postponable
1971-1975
One of the most immediate needs of the Town is a new Central Fire Station adequate to house two pieces of major equipment. The earliest this can probably be built is 1957, and the Committee recommends that this be done at an estimated cost of $100,000. This Committee therefore supports the article in the warrant to appoint a building committee for the purpose of reviewing the
13
site purchased in the light of the Commonwealth' s plans for relocating Route 2, and to recommend to the town both site and building plans. It is suggested that this Committee, in cooperation with the Board of Selectmen, work with the National Board of Fire Underwriters in securing approval of a site which would, in their opinion, give needed coverage.
This Fire Station, as already noted, should house the Town's communi- cation center, police offices and an overnight lockup. In addition, it should provide dormitory quarters for a small number of men, including a full-time driver. Most important, in a town which proposes to rely largely on call firemen, this building should have a social room with kitchen equipment for the benefit of the members of the Department and others.
The amount of $8,000 in 1957 is included for replacement of equipment purchased in 1936. $15,000 is set down for 1961-1965 as an estimate to cover the replacement of the two pieces bought in 1947.
$50,000 may be needed in the 3rd or 4th five-year period to house the fire apparatus located south of the Boston and Maine railroad line in South Lincoln. This equipment is now housed in a garage, but this arrangement may not be capable of indefinite extension. Room is not available in the Town Garage, although its site may be large enough to obviate the necessity to buy more land.
c. Financing
The purchase of apparatus would be made out of current taxes, but the fire houses would be financed through borrowing. A 20-year basis has been assumed.
d. Effect on current expenditure
The cost of fire protection in Lincoln has been running about $7,000 to $8,000 of current expenditure. The necessity to employ full-time coverage plus upkeep on a building would increase this possibly by as much as $5,000. Heating and maintenance are estimated at $3,000 annually. At the same time, the trans- fer of the Town's communication center to the Fire station would increase the fire protection of the town without additional cost.
It is believed by the Committee that this increase in current expense is unavoidable. It should be observed in this connection that a full-time department costs on the order of $25,000 for salaries alone.
3. Other Protection of Persons and Property
a. Record of capital outlays, 1946-1955
a
1946
- -
1951
$3,000.00
1947
1952
b
1948
--
1953
2,922.70
1949
- .
1954
1950
-
1955
3,989.44
Total
$9,912.44
14
a
b
Estimated initial expenditure on civil defense; Tree and Moth department truck and sprayer; Town Hall switch board and Civil Defense communication equipment.
b. Proposed Capital Expenditures
Possible $4,000 for civil defense alarm, allocated arbitrarily to 1957 in event fire whistles prove inadequate.
Desirable expenditure of $10,000 for a rescue truck not recommended at this time in view of cost and limited use.
In absence of a clear appreciation of the civil defense danger, it is hard to pursue a rational policy of expenditure in this area. The town has acquired an adequate communication center, although further expenditure on a system of 4 linked sirens may be required in the event that the new fire whistle recently installed cannot be heard adequately in all parts of the town under various conditions.
The town has recently been designated an evacuation town, instead of a reception area, which changes the character of its civil defense task. In the absence of clear indications of what is needed, the Director is proceeding on the basis of providing for emergency needs in flood, hurricane or other natural disasters.
It would be desirable to have a rescue truck, but in view of its high cost and the uncertainty of its justification, this is not recommended at this time.
It is recommended that this area of capital expense be kept under cons- tant review in the light of the developing situation.
c. Financing - current budget
Health and Sanitation
a. Record of capital outlays, 1946-1955
Nurse's automobile, approximately $750 in 1948 and $877 in 1955.
b. Proposed Capital Expenditures
None (treating the nurses' car as a current expense).
The question of land to protect the drainage basin of Sandy Pond, strongly urged by the Board of Health, is referred to below under Land Acquisition.
Apart from the nurse's car and the land around Sandy Pond, the Committee recommends no capital expenditures for garbage or rubbish disposal, or sewers.
i. Garbage disposal - The Committee sees no necessity to
15
alter the present method of garbage disposal to piggeries, at least until the present situation changes. It is true that the numbers of piggeries in Lincoln has declined from about 15 before World War II to 2 currently, and these numbers may be still further reduced in 20 years. There are however, still considerable numbers of piggeries in towns to the north, and many towns contract to dispose of their garbage with piggeries in relatively distant towns.
It is considered that the construction of an incinerator, such as Concord is building at a cost of $45,000, is not justified in a town the size of Lincoln as it is now or as it may develop over the period immediately ahead. A number of the Town's residents have installed domestic incinerators and found this a satisfactory answer to the garbage and paper disposal problem. The Planning Board is considering recommending that new houses include this relatively inexpensive feature. No need for the town to undertake such an item is foreseen.
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